Related Articles

The Y2K Problem: Part One

January/February 1999 IBEW Journal

Is the World on the Brink of a Data Bust

Thousands of doomsayers have been predicting that when the clock strikes midnight on December 31, 1999, a catastrophe of amazing proportions will strike throughout the world. Will it be a monstrous asteroid? A series of devastating hurricanes or earthquakes? Widespread, gigantic volcanic eruptions? A fast-developing, easily spread virus? No, the catastrophe being forecast may not make an awe-inspiring, special-effects Hollywood blockbuster. But, according to some experts, it has the potential to bring the entire world to its knees.

You may have noticed journalists, government officials, computer experts and business leaders pondering the onslaught of "the bug to end the century." This "mother of all computer viruses" is also known as the "millennium bug," the "Y2K," problem and the Year 2000 computer glitch. A spawn of the "age of technology," this previously insignificant computer programming convention may disrupt the lives - and fortunes - of billions of people throughout the world.

The Birth of Y2K

The Y2K bug is as old as the earliest computers. In those days, memory and data storage were at a premium: limited, expensive and hoarded. As one means of efficiently allocating precious space, computer programmers developed the two-digit date convention (MM/DD/YY). The computer and its software recognized only the last two digits as the actual year, say, 98, and assumed the first two digits of a year are 1 and 9. Programmers of that era never expected the convention to become permanent. Regrettably, the convention became incorporated in computers produced since that time and stands ready to sabotage the majority of the world's computer systems - from huge mainframes to tiny microchips embedded in personal computers and other digitized devices.

Y2K problems may occur in three areas important to a computer's functions: two-digit date storage, leap-year calculations and special meanings for dates.

1. Two-digit date storage. The most common and most damaging problem. Calculations built upon two-digit dates (98, with the 19 understood) will not execute properly because they will presume that dates in the 21^st century are smaller numbers than dates in the 20^th century: 2000 - 1998 = 2, but (19)00 - 98 = -98. So, for example, a mortgage company's accounting software might see accounts as overdue because its customers have not paid in 98 years!

2. Leap-year calculations. The year 2000 is a leap year, but computers may not recognize that fact. Computers calculate leap years using a specific set of rules, under which many systems and applications will not recognize 2000 as a leap year. So, these systems and applications will cause dates after February 29, 2000, to be incorrect by one day.

3. Special meanings for dates. This occurs more in older code bases. To more efficiently utilize memory, computer programmers used certain dates or combinations of digits (for example, 9/9/99) as a form of shorthand to program special functions; such as, "save this data item forever" or "remove this data item automatically after 30 days" or "sort this data item to the top of the report." When these combinations of digits are used (for example, as a deadline for a purchase order), the computer will execute the special function associated with that code. Each organization may have used special date codes differently. This is one reason why no single tool or "patch" will be able to locate or correct all uses and/or misuses of date data.

Why Wasn't Y2K Cured Long Ago?

Many business, government and computer industry leaders knew 30 years ago that Y2K was going to cause problems. But, due in large measure to simple, basic aspects of human nature, no one attempted to address the problem seriously until the early 1990s. For example, 2000 seemed so remote to programmers in the '70s. In fact, most of them believed the programs they created would be replaced well before the year 2000.

The people with the authority to raise this issue publicly and allocate money and labor to solve the problem years ago feared the cost to them, their companies or organizations, and their governments. The losses they envisioned included embarrassment, job security, money (profits or taxpayers' dollars), prestige, and power. Indeed, correcting the problem would cost a great deal of money while providing no noticeable benefit. Many people tried to ignore this unpleasant situation, perhaps hoping it would go away on its own. When that didn't work, the problem was minimized: "It really isn't that big a deal; besides, it's years until the turn of the century." Only in the last few years have experts around the world acknowledged that the Y2K bug is pervasive and ruinous.

"But I Don't Own a Computer"

An individual doesn't have to own a computer to be affected by this problem on a day-to-day basis. The world is almost entirely dependent on computers. Computers control just about everything, from managing savings accounts and controlling the elevators in office buildings, to monitoring the safety systems in electric power plants and the flight patterns in air traffic control systems. The Y2K problem exists in personal computers, minicomputers and (especially) mainframe systems. And, unfortunately, the cure for the problem is not as simple as just changing the dates. For one thing, how can a programmer be sure all the lines of code involving the date have been repaired?

Couldn't a company contact computer and software vendors for "patches" and "millennium-correctf"equipment? Sure, but how could the company be certain its now-compliant system will interact properly with the systems of other companies? It's not enough for a company to shout, We've done it! when its system is compliant. In this technological age, no business, individual or government agency is completely independent. Rather, all are interdependent. (See chart.)

Manufacturing companies, for example, improved production efficiency through just-in-time inventory, automation and electronic data interchange communications with vendors. These processes require suppliers, manufacturers and customers to be interlocked through computers. A Y2K breakdown in one company could cause a domino effect throughout the manufacturing chain, partially or completely disrupting production.

More worrisome are the major infrastructure systems that might experience problems because of Y2K. These include, but may not be limited to:

• malfunction of some defense weapons systems;

• breakdown of international air traffic control systems;

• corruption of local and state government computer systems (false records, errors in income and property tax records, payroll and retirement systems);

• breakdown of some public transportation systems; and

• interference with satellite signals essential for telecommunications and entertainment and global positioning system navigation.

Security and safety systems at electric utilities, banks and prisons might fail or operate erratically. The list of possible failures is almost endless.

Next issue: We'll tell you how government and business have progressed in their efforts to cure Y2K. We'll also provide a few tips on how you might protect your financial and personal records throughout 1999 and after January 1, 2000.